FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - The German leading index Dax could prove to be astonishingly robust in the new week as well. Although there have been a few brief summer thunderstorms recently, which show increasing nervousness, experts remain optimistic overall.
The DAX “continues to hold its trading range established in June with astonishing precision,” observed analyst Andreas Büchler from Index Radar, looking at the chart. Small warning signals appeared within this corridor, but these can still be ignored for the time being. In the short term, the 15 point mark will probably continue to offer an attractive entry-level opportunity.
From a fundamental point of view, Robert Greil, chief strategist of the private bank Merck Finck, sees the main causes for the increasing uncertainty "in virus-related economic worries and concerns about braking maneuvers by the central banks". It is feared that the monetary authorities, fearing that inflation will rise too quickly, may raise interest rates sooner rather than later and thus reduce the attractiveness of stocks compared to fixed-income securities. In addition, according to the experts, the more contagious delta variant of the corona virus is spreading in many countries and thus endangering the hoped-for economic upswing.
Nevertheless, Greil remains optimistic and continues to expect that the Dax will soon tackle the 16 mark - as long as the corona situation does not worsen significantly. In the next few weeks some positive news is likely. The companies in the USA could again present strong quarterly figures and thus also drive the prices in this country. A first foretaste of this will be provided by the figures of major US banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley from Tuesday to Thursday.
Whether investors will actually keep a cool head when it comes to inflation, as experts expected, will be shown on Tuesday. Then new US pricing data will be released for June. In the USA, inflation last rose surprisingly strongly again in May; But the news did not trigger shock waves in the markets.
According to the chief economist of Dekabank, Ulrich Kater, the figures that are now due for publication should show that, in contrast to the long-term outlook, inflation is likely to pick up again significantly in the short term. "In the confusion of production after the lockdown was opened, supply and demand simply do not match in many economies." However, slowly the realization has matured that these developments are of a temporary nature. There are even initial expectations that price cuts could occur again in the coming months. As a result, the inflation rate would then fall relatively significantly.
In addition to the US inflation data on Tuesday, further economic data could cloud the currently quite good mood of investors. “It is important to keep an eye on the global economic dynamics,” wrote analyst Claudia Windt from Landesbank Helaba. The publication of the Chinese growth figures on Thursday gave cause for this. With a view to the USA, current data on industrial production and capacity utilization would also be examined for additional price pressure on Thursday.
Basically, the Helaba expert warned caution: "The image of a powerful economic recovery has cracked with the advance of the delta variant in the USA, Europe and Asia." The rates of new infections increased worldwide and new lockdowns could lead to an economic setback lead. / la / bek / jha / he
- By Lutz Alexander, dpa-AFX -