Andreas Scheuer wants to stay, Horst Seehofer not. After the upcoming federal elections, the moving of chairs will begin at the cabinet table. What's next for the current ministers? A look into the glass ball.
Boss leaves, one way or another. That’s definitely clear. Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to withdraw from the Chancellery as soon as after Federal Elections a new government is in place in September. After about 16 years in office.
None of their 14 ministers have been in office for that long - but for some of them their time in the federal cabinet should be over after the election. Others, on the other hand, can imagine adding another term of office. The Federal Minister of Transport recently made a statement Andreas Scheuer corresponding.
The stern with a look into the future: who could stay? Who would have to go?
Scholz wants more, Seehofer wants to quit
Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Finance Olaf Scholz (SPD): As a result of own planning for the future, has a desire for more. The SPD's candidate for chancellor wants to continue to rule, but preferably one step higher than now - as chancellor. Can he succeed? The current surveys tend to speak against it. And whether Scholz would still have the backing of his party in the event of a poor election result to at least continue to sit as a minister at the cabinet table in the event of a government participation is at least questionable.
Stern forecast: If he can, Olaf Scholz will continue.
Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer (CSU): Is 73 years old after the election and after around 50 years in politics has actually seen everything you can see as a politician - previously was Minister of Health (1992 to 1998), Minister of Agriculture (2005 to 2008), Prime Minister of Bavaria (2008 until 2018) and CSU party leader (2008 to 2019). And the people have actually seen everything from him that can be seen from a minister. Logically, Seehofer will stop after the federal election. He announced in May 2019 and has stuck with it ever since. Then he has to Angela Merkel nothing more to prove.
Stern prognosis: After the election it's over, but then really.
Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (SPD): Travels a lot and obviously likes to do so. But would do another job in government too. After all, don't appear at the top of the state list in Saarland for fun. Problem (see Olaf Scholz): Is in the SPD and therefore has anything but a guarantee for a cabinet post.
star forecast: See Olaf Scholz.
Economics Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU): The nice guy, the team player. Can also work well with SPD colleagues, and even better with talk show moderators. Affects little, maybe too little. In addition, the CDU could lose the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Altmaier is in September 64, has gotten through without major scandals and can actually leave the square with his head held high. He is one of Merkel's most important men and was once her head of the chancellery. At the end of their era, his era might end too: he is running for the Bundestag, but could end up in the second row - criticism of the economics minister was heard from the CDU. Friedrich Merz, who lost to Armin Laschet in the race for the CDU chairmanship, is one of his most prominent critics - probably also because he is toying with the post.
Stern forecast: if you ask, he'll stay on board. But will you ask him?
Federal Justice and Family Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD): Most recently headed two ministries because (now ex-) Federal Family Minister Minister Franziska Giffey (SPD) asked for dismissal in the course of a plagiarism debate. Lambrecht stepped in. What's next? At least she no longer stands as a candidate in the election. She could still become a minister. “But I can well imagine working in my dream job again. I am a lawyer by conviction, "she recently told the" Spiegel ".
star prognosis: Will no longer.
What will happen to the federal ministers?
Federal Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil (SPD): Is far from finished. Heil is relatively young, wants to rule and belongs more to the attack department. Has not recently made himself particularly popular with coalition partners and fought hard for fair wages and the basic pension. A social democrat of the highest quality, one could say. Would continue as labor minister, but - you guessed it - the party book could get in the way.
Stern prognosis: stays if it works. If not: Could legitimately claim a high-ranking post for himself - perhaps as the SPD parliamentary group leader?
Federal Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU): Did not become a candidate for chancellor. And the CDU chairmanship is gone too. But at least "holder of the authority to command and command". Has at least given a lot of thought to the future of the Bundeswehr and, according to reports, would like to help shape it. Your advantage: There is a lot of upheaval in the armed forces, not least due to the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan - which they helped to organize. It's in the subject.
Stern forecast: Will continue, but the voters have the final say.
Federal Minister of Agriculture Julia Klöckner (CDU): Makes the impression that she enjoys everything. But has recently lost support in their regional association of Rhineland-Palatinate. With environmental associations for a long time. And possible coalition partners could see it similarly.
star forecast: Only if there is an absolute majority in favor of the Union - rather not.
Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU): Want more. Will chancellor. But not now. On the way to the Chancellery, at some point, however, every position is right and no office is too big. Politically, he will survive the corona crisis. If the Union survives the federal elections with a government mandate, Spahn will also remain as minister. If not, he may be the group leader, rumor has it.
Stern forecast: carry on, if necessary as an opposition leader.
Will Andreas Scheuer stay in office after the 2021 federal election?
Federal Minister of Transport Andreas Scheuer (CSU): Andy still bucked and turned the indicator to the left. “I really enjoy it. I will fight hard, in my constituency and then in the coalition negotiations, that this Ministry of Investment and Innovation can look to the future well. I still have a lot to do, ”he recently confidently dictated to the DPA news agency in his notepad. It is questionable that his work also makes enough others happy: During his term of office, the failure of the car toll falls. The media likes to refer to Scheuer as "the wrong way" here., here. and here.) designated. Ouch.
Star forecast: Can only stay if the CSU cannot find another (and is allowed to continue to govern), so probably not.
Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD): “The cards are being reshuffled,” she says. But also in their favor? Will move into the Bundestag for the first time as a member of parliament in September. Could perhaps become education minister in a government - provided that the SPD is involved - because her portfolio would then almost certainly go to the Greens.
Stern forecast: Will soon no longer sit at the cabinet table.
Federal Minister of Education Anja Karliczek (CDU): Would like to continue. She sees herself as the implementer of a “decade of modernization” under Armin Laschet. But the FDP could interfere. A thankless job anyway: not much to say, but constant criticism. Was only able to distinguish herself to a limited extent during her tenure. Has been Called "the invisible one" and "the junk minister". Last was their ministry was even fundamentally questioned.
star forecast: From September onwards, she can fully concentrate on her possible mandate in the Bundestag.
Federal Development Minister Gerd Müller (CSU): Has earned a lot of respect and practically no scandals. It happened because of Business trips with his wife into criticism - but actually no more and no less. I want to let younger people on now. After the election it will be over, says Müller. Point. You can believe him.
Stern forecast: That's it, thank you.
Chancellery Minister Helge Braun (CDU): Holds the shop together and takes turns with colleague Altmaier on talk shows. But, old rule: new chancellor, new minister of the Chancellery. The obliging physician from Gießen would also help elsewhere if he was needed.
star forecast: Could still find somewhere until Prime Minister Volker Bouffier needs him as his successor in Hesse in 2023.