Economy - Opec sees oil demand rising slightly more in 2021 than recently

Despite the corona crisis, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects a somewhat stronger increase in global oil demand this year than recently. According to Tuesday's new monthly report, it is anticipating an average increase of 2021 million barrels per day (mb / d) in 6,0 - to an average of 96,5 million barrels per day. In March, too, Opec had slightly increased its demand expectation.

Opec justified the somewhat higher expectation now in April with the fact that demand in the second half of 2021 will be stronger than expected a month ago - supported by economic stimulus programs and a further relaxation of the Covid-19 restrictions, while vaccination activity in particular will continue accelerate in the OECD area. For the current first half of the year, however, the demand for oil has been corrected downwards, mainly because of the latest Corona measures in industrialized countries and the sluggish oil demand outside the OECD. In 2020, world oil demand is likely to have fallen by 9,5 mb / d to an average of 90,5 mb / d, according to Opec on Tuesday.

The Opec experts are a bit more optimistic about the global economy than they were a month ago. For the global economy they are now expecting 5,4 percent growth instead of 5,1 percent for this year, and they are also more confident for the OECD area with 4,6 percent instead of 4,3 percent. They even see the US economy expanding by 5,7 instead of 4,8 percent, and in China they have saddled up from 8,0 to 8,4 percent. For the euro zone, which shrank by 6,8 percent last year, the OPEC experts in the new monthly report remained at 4,3 percent GDP plus for 2021.

Further economic recovery

The global economic recovery is continuing, largely supported by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, sum up the economists. The upswing will mainly take place in the second half of the year. The basic assumption of this forecast is that Covid-19 will be largely contained by the beginning of the second half of the year - with the majority of the population in the developed economies being vaccinated and the pandemic not being a major obstacle for emerging and developing countries.

According to Opec, the world oil supply in March was probably an average of 93,23 mb / d, 1,22 mb / d below the month before and 7,22 mb / d less than in March 2020. The Opec share at According to the report, the world volume was 26,9 percent, 0,1 percentage point below the previous month of February.

Saudis cut production again

According to the monthly report, OPEC production averaged 25,04 million barrels per day in March - slightly more than in February (24,84 mb / d). The leading OPEC-producing country Saudi Arabia cut back its production again and according to secondary sources it came to an average of 8,09 mb / d (slightly less than the 8,12 mb / d in February, but around a million barrels per day less than that 9,08 mb / d from January), followed by Iraq with 3,91 mb / d (slightly more) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with 2,61 mb / d and Kuwait with 2,33 mb / d (both unchanged).

Libya, where OMV is also active, expanded its output again within a month to an average of 1,20 mb / d, after 1,17 mb / d in February and 1,15 mb / d in January. In December, Libya had the largest absolute plus of all OPEC members and before that, in November, produced as much oil as not since 2019. (apa)