K question in the Union CSU for the third? Why Söder would have a better chance of winning the election than Strauss and Stoiber
Laschet or Söder? Above all, the polls suggest that the Union should run for the Bundestag election with a CSU candidate for chancellor. So far it always went wrong. Also with Söder? Candidates and constellations.
Will this unwritten iron law of federal politics remain valid? It is commonly said that a Bavarian cannot become Chancellor. That means, of course, that a: e CSU politician: in cannot get enough approval nationwide to become head of government: in. Too much Bavarian stubbornness, too much "Mir san mir" in the Free State and also in the party. In addition, in many places there is a reluctance to see a kind of “regional association of the Union” want to become a Chancellor's party.
With Markus Söder for the third time Christian Social Union-Politician expresses his will to be candidate for chancellor of the Union. After Franz Josef Strauss and Edmund Stoiber, it would be the third from the smaller of the sister parties with the capital C in their name. So far, the Union has had no luck with this constellation. Does this slow down Söder before he can really take off? At the end of this Monday it almost seems like that. Or is there no way around CSU man Söder because of the significantly better poll results? The Franconian seems to see it that way. There has always been a great deal of crunch in the CDU when a CSU man had a chance at the Chancellery. It is no different now, however much CDU boss Armin Laschet and his competitor from Bavaria may try to achieve harmony.
A look back and ahead:
Franz Josef Strauss (candidate for Chancellor 1980)
Type: Bavarian polterer
public reputation: To characterize Franz Josef Strauss as polarizing is still an understatement. The highly intelligent and self-confident CSU boss at the time often acted like an elephant in a china shop - at least in the opinion of many non-Bavarians. Several political scandals in the early 1960s are connected with the name Strauss: Starfighter affair, Fibag affair, Spiegel affair. During the election campaign for the 1980 Bundestag elections, there was active agitation against the stimulating figure of Strauss. Buttons with the slogan “Stop Strauss!”, Also with the addition “Against reaction, fascism and war!”, Were widespread at the time. On our own account it must be mentioned: Strauss was born in 1964 stern-Founder Henri Nannen won as a columnist - here, too, there is fierce headwind from the editorial team. The collaboration will be terminated after seven months.
Constellation in the Union: The prospect of power in Bonn is bad for the CDU at the end of the 1970s. SPD icon Helmut Schmidt is firmly in the saddle as Chancellor, is popular and the FDP is determined to continue the social-liberal coalition. In the three-party system of that time, the Union had to strive for an absolute majority, but Helmut Kohl, who lost to Schmidt in the 1976 election, gives a weak picture as party and parliamentary group leader. The "strong man" Strauss comes into play, but is hesitant. It was only when Kohl brought the Lower Saxony Ernst Albrecht, father of the current EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, into play that leading CSU leaders urged their party leader to run for office - not least because the party leaders were crazy. The trenches are deep, and there is no body that can elect the candidate for chancellor. Ultimately, the joint parliamentary group decides. After turbulent, seven-hour deliberations, Strauss was elected candidate with a 33-vote lead.
The result: With Strauss, the Union emerged as the strongest parliamentary group (44,5 percent) in the election, but the social-liberal coalition (SPD 42,9; FDP 10,6) stands together; Helmut Schmidt remains Chancellor.
Edmund Stoiber (candidate for Chancellor 2002)
Type: brittle "file eater"
public reputation: Although politically quite successful (altogether 14 years Bavarian Prime Minister and in the Bavarian elections in 2003 with the best nationwide result in a state election according to the distribution of seats) Edmund Stoiber is regarded as a so-called "file eater" without charisma. When asked what his friends call him, he once replied in a TV documentary: “My friends call me Prime Minister.” His public image is shaped by his frequent slip of the tongue and clumsy remarks. His “ten-minute Transrapid speech” at the beginning of the election year 2002 even achieved cult status and was given to the drummer Jonny König (including Sons of Mannheim) for his thesis at the Popakademie Mannheim even set to music as "Stoiber on Drums". In the north and east of Germany in particular, Stoiber is therefore often not taken seriously and his suitability as Chancellor is called into question.
Constellation in the Union: The term “Wolfratshauser Breakfast” is inextricably linked with Stoiber's candidacy. After the end of the Helmut Kohl era, the CDU / CSU entered the opposition in 1998. The CDU donation affair shook the party and ended the ambitions of Kohl's "Crown Prince" Wolfgang Schäuble; Friedrich Merz moves up as parliamentary group leader, Angela Merkel as party leader. Trench warfare breaks out; the new "chairwoman from the east" is still viewed with suspicion. After Merkel publicly indicated her interest in a chancellorship, a number of prime ministers, state chairmen and members of the CDU speak out in favor of Edmund Stoiber as candidate for chancellor. The CSU boss is also clearly ahead of Angela Merkel in the polls. Merkel anticipates a defeat in the vote, offers Stoiber the candidacy for chancellor over breakfast in his house and thus secures her position as party and parliamentary group leader - which at the same time dislodges Friedrich Merz and prepares her successful candidate for chancellor in 2006. Stoiber, who at first adores himself like Strauss, is running.
The result: Stoiber suffers the narrowest and most dramatic defeat in German election history. Union and SPD each come to 38,5 percent. The Greens are 1,1 percentage points ahead of the FDP - that's enough for the majority of the seats. Stoiber looks like the sure winner early on, but the lead is melting hour after hour. Ultimately, 6000 votes are missing. Gerhard Schröder remains chancellor.
Markus Söder (possible candidate for chancellor)
Type: jovial doer
public reputation: Söder uses the corona pandemic to present itself as a successful crisis manager and doer. A kind of covert duel develops with the new CDU boss Armin Laschet for the public's favor. Although the image of the doer gets scratched with the ongoing pandemic, Söder positions himself as the Union's candidate for chancellor. In the good CSU tradition, however, he adores himself and declares that his place is in Bavaria. The native of Franconia succeeds in largely forgetting earlier hardliner positions (police law, immigration).
Constellation in the Union: Again the CDU is in crisis, again the party ends with the end of an era in a dodgy course in terms of both personnel and content. And again that brings the chance of a CSU candidate for chancellor. Angela Merkel's old rival Friedrich Merz is pushing back onto the political stage, but fails in the election of the CDU party leader and is no longer a candidate for chancellor. Merkel's “Crown Princess” Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer becomes party leader, but fails because of the political struggles in the party and its low authority. Kramp-Karrenbauer renounces chairmanship and candidacy for chancellor, but remains in office for many months until NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet is elected party leader. Söder then announces his ambitions for the Chancellery. Now the competitors in corona management are also facing each other as competitors in the Union's K-question. Laschet has the larger party behind him, and according to the surveys, Söder is clearly more likely to win. Many CDU MPs therefore publicly favor the CSU man. Once again, the Union is faced with a decision that threatens to damage a prominent member.
Result: open. On Monday, however, the CDU presidium and executive board stand behind party leader Armin Laschet. The CSU Presidium supports Markus Söder.
So there are parallels to Söder's predecessors in a potential CSU candidate for chancellor. They benefited from the fact that the big sister party was in crisis and at least Stoiber also from a better standing in public. However, this time the Union is going to be elected as the ruling party. Reason enough for the CDU to prefer to get on their own horse? Söder has not yet given up. It is important to "weigh up the chances in the population," he said on Monday with a view to his polls.