The morning situation - Larifari with Laschet

What Laschet does not say

"Anyone who does that will be kicked out." Armin Laschet took place on Wednesday evening clear words in the ARD talk with Sandra Maischberger. He was referring to party friends who enriched themselves in mask business in the pandemic - and not those CDU members who are not so specific about the delimitation from the far right. CDU members like Max Otte, the new chairman of the arch-conservative Values ​​Union, who likes to be close to the AfD. Or his deputy Klaus Dageförde, who used to be active in the right-wing extremist scene.

Laschet found less clear words for these people. The Values ​​Union is overrated, noted the CDU chairman and candidate for chancellor, "a phenomenon that has no influence on the course of the CDU." A so-called incompatibility decision, as one or the other Christian Democrat now demands, he doesn't think it's appropriate. The same applies to the attempt to throw Max Otte out of the party. Laschet confirms that Otte is talking "nonsense" from time to time. "But nonsense is not a reason for disqualification."

One can assume that Laschet means well with his party. Of course, it is easy to demand such an incompatibility resolution, but you should consider that the ValuesUnion - if your own statements are correct - has around 4000 members, 80 percent of whom should be in the CDU. And of course it is easy to demand exclusion from the party, one can assume that Laschet Otte would rather be going today than tomorrow. But pulling this off is difficult. The SPD can sing a Sarrazin song about it, with the Greens the big Palmer show is just beginning.

And yet Laschet also makes it easy, too easy, when he refers to the high hurdles of an exclusionary process and dismisses a cross-border statement by Otte as "stupid", such as the belittling, later deleted tweet about the right-wing extremist murder of the CDU regional president Walter Lübcke. When he repeatedly emphasizes that the ValuesUnion is not at all organizationally linked with the CDU and should therefore no longer be taken into account.

This is not a firewall to the far right, nor is it a clear edge that Laschet likes to talk about, but Larifari - the attempt to downplay a real problem that is about more than the Union of Values. This group, which in itself is not very large, represents the wish of a much larger part of the party to use the end of the Merkel era for a rollback. In many places, for example, liberal Christian Democrats were ousted by much more conservative competitors in the candidate list for the federal election. But if the Christian Democratic coordinate system shifts fundamentally to the right, those who want to test the limits even further will sense their chance.

Laschet has to say clearly over and over again what is possible and what is not. He should say unequivocally: We do not want these people, they do not speak on behalf of the CDU - even if they cannot be excluded. "I don't think so," replied the chairman yesterday evening to the charge that he was too weak to prevent the party from shifting to the right. That sounds neither convincing nor convincing.

Last survey from Saxony-Anhalt

Today there are one last time fresh figures from Saxony-Anhalt, the last mood picture before the election on Sunday. In the course of the day you will find out on SPIEGEL.de in the SPIEGEL survey by the opinion research institute Civey whether the CDU is from Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff Have to worry that the AfD will pass her. Who is ahead in the race for third place: SPD, Greens, FDP or the Left.

Then the big arithmetic starts again: What could the next government look like? A while ago, my colleague Timo Lehmann explained the special Saxon-Anhalt color theory; at the time he came up with seven - more or less probable - coalition options or, in some cases, only coalition dreams (read here. the details).

If there is enough for a majority, many observers still hold one New edition of the currently ruling Kenya coalition for likely. In the end, the Prime Minister himself recently reported that it had achieved a “top performance”. Haseloff said that without blushing. Of course he knows how stressful the past five years have been for each of the three partners, how often the alliance has been on the verge of breaking. My colleague Timo has a selection of the numerous crises in Kenya for you compiled here.

Haseloff, provided he can claim governance again, could well consider alternatives. For example, there would be Germany coalition, in which a strengthened FDP would replace the Greens. For the green federal chief Annalena Baerbock, who wants to join the Berlin chancellery, the loss of government participation in the last test before the federal election would not be a nice signal, even if her party could significantly improve its election result.

Or one Jamaican coalition, with which the SPD would be left behind. A horror scenario for the comrades, both in the federal government and in the country. After all, one still ruled in all of the East German states, no matter how dwindled the party was.

If it is not enough for a three-party alliance, all four could do something together: CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP - Zimbabwe Coalition this combination was baptized.

Only one thing is certain in Saxony-Anhalt for the time being: Forming a government will not be easy.

Israel facing historic change of power

Shortly before the end of the deadline for forming a government at midnight, opposition leaders failed Jair Lapid notify the president of the successful conclusion of the negotiations: The coalition is perfect, the fifth election within two years seems to have been averted.

Israel is facing a historic change of power, provided the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, approves. On the one hand, the Benjamin Netanyahu era would have ended after twelve years. On the other hand, a party belonging to the Arab minority would be involved in a government for the first time.

The future coalition will be, to put it mildly, a shaky structure. In this country tripartite alliances are already considered daring, in Israel a total of eight parties now have to work together, from the very far right to the left (read more about the interests of the various partners here). They are united above all in the will to prevent Netanyahu, who is on trial in Jerusalem for corruption. As Prime Minister, he should now initially Naphthali Bennett follow from the right Jamina party. After two years, Lapid is to replace him from the liberal future party at the top of the government.

And Netanyahu? Doesn't give up yet. Until his successors are sworn in, he should do everything possible to bring the fragile coalition structure to collapse before it could even begin work. If he does not succeed, he will attack again from within the opposition and drive the eight-party government apart.

Not a hopeless undertaking. But who knows, maybe he's welding right now "King Bibi" 's thirst for power the very big anti-Netanyahu coalition together.

Loser of the day ...

... is Donald Trump. It was supposed to be a website that would “completely redefine the game”. “This new platform is going to be big, and everyone wants it. He will bring millions and millions, tens of millions of people to his new platform. ”With these words, Trump adviser Jason Miller declared in March that the ex-US president would launch his own network after being banned from popular social media channels will, as usual, be bigger and better than anything else.

Since the beginning of May there has been a kind of blog on Trump's official website, via which the republican who was voted out of office distributed press releases under the title "From the Desk of Donald J. Trump". No trace of their own online platform with mega-reach. Now there is also the economy version Already discontinued after a few weeks - without giving reasons. According to the Washington Post, the ex-president is said to have been annoyed by the ridicule of his online activities and the apparently rather meager access numbers. Adviser Miller meanwhile whispers again about even "more extensive efforts" that are being worked on. How exciting!