If the Union has its way, then it should be from Sachsen-Anhalt necessarily send out a signal for the federal election in autumn. After all, Reiner has Haseloffs CDU surprisingly won the last state election before the federal vote on September 26th. The Christian Democrats won around 37 percent in June. It is a result that no one expected before. It is a result of that Armin Laschet dreams.
But the looks from Berlin are directed these days for a different reason Magdeburg. Because in the political laboratory of Pure Haseloff is preparing a new coalition variant: CDU, SPD and FDP want to forge an alliance together - not quite correctly called the German coalition in terms of color.
In the federal government, too, the coalition question seems more open than ever. Surveys showed majorities for black-green, a traffic light coalition, at times also for red-red-green. The continuation of the grand coalition is actually not wanted by any of the parties involved, but at the moment the Union and the SPD could possibly no longer form a government in arithmetical terms. Some people wonder whether Saxony-Anhalt would not also be a model for the entire republic.
The coalition negotiations in Magdeburg should begin soon. How did that happen? What other hurdles are there? And is the alliance really an option for the federal government? The answers to the most important questions.
Why don't the CDU and SPD rule alone in Saxony-Anhalt?
In fact, the CDU and SPD would have a wafer-thin majority in the state parliament even in a two-party alliance. The Social Democrats had shown themselves to be open to this option, but the CDU, above all the Prime Minister Pure Haseloff, ruling with only one voice over thirst was too great a risk.
The CDU parliamentary group is considered stubborn. Haseloff had to experience again and again in the past how little the MPs give on factional discipline. During the election campaign, the Prime Minister advertised with a modified slogan of Konrad Adenauer: "Now is not the time for political experiments." The German coalition, which was last established in the 1950s in Bremen and in Saarland there is one thing. With a full majority, however, not a particularly dangerous one.
Why do the Greens no longer co-rule?
Germany's first Kenya coalition, an alliance of the CDU, SPD and the Greens, had ruled Saxony-Anhalt since 2016. Again and again there was a crisis, especially between the CDU and the Greens. They got along in the cabinet and in the party leadership, but there were great reservations in the back rows.
While the Greens liked to blaspheme the unpredictable chaos of the CDU parliamentary group, the CDU worked on the allegedly incapable of government staff of the Greens. Agriculture Minister Claudia Dalbert was a thorn in the side of parts of the CDU. A CDU MP even filed charges against them.
This time, too, there would have been government options with the Greens. The Greens rejected a continuation of the Kenya coalition because they did not want to be available as a spare wheel for the black-red majority. The alternative would have been the Jamaican coalition made up of the CDU, FDP and the Greens. As it is said, the explorations revealed difficult-to-overcome hurdles between the Greens and the CDU, especially in climate policy.
Could soon play a bigger role in Saxony-Anhalt: Lydia Hüskens (FDP)
Photo: Matthias Bein / dpa
Is the FDP even fit for the government?
For the Liberals, the election in Saxony-Anhalt was a success. They were not represented in the state parliament for ten years. There is a liberal tradition in the state, it is the country of birth of Hans-Dietrich GenscherIn 1990 Uwe Lühr even won her last direct mandate for the FDP in Halle. Now they are supposed to be part of the government, even though they are not actually needed mathematically.
The FDP is currently not involved in any state government in East Germany. From the CDU it is said that the Liberals were optimally prepared for the talks. There are no doubts about the ability to govern.
What are the obstacles to forming a government?
In the coming weeks, the CDU, SPD and FDP want to make a formal decision on whether to start coalition negotiations. In the case of Christian Democrats and Liberals, the governing bodies decide, the Social Democrats will convene a party congress.
The coalition negotiations are scheduled for three weeks from July 19. While the FDP is to vote on the result at a party congress in September, the CDU and SPD want to involve their members.
The Social Democrats are likely to have the greatest reservations. The party emerged weakened from the elections, some in the Jusos, for example, had already had enough of the CDU with the Kenya coalition, now the FDP is also to be added.
What could the cabinet look like?
If the coalition negotiations are successful, the SPD ministers are likely to continue. CDU country chief Sven Schulze, previously a member of the EU Parliament, could move into the cabinet. The position in the Ministry of the Interior, which is decisive for state politics, is vacant. Schulze is also likely to be considered a future candidate for the office of Prime Minister.
One problem case has already been cleared: The previous Justice Minister Anne-Marie Keding (CDU), who allowed herself some blunders, was transferred to the post of Vice President of the State Parliament. For the Liberals, it should definitely be the top candidate Lydia Hüskens take over a ministerial office.
Would the German coalition have a chance in the federal government?
Black-green, a traffic light, red-red-green, Jamaica, Kenya, the GroKo - many coalitions in the federal government are conceivable, even if, according to the latest surveys, not all of them are mathematically possible. The German coalition has hardly played a role in the color games so far. Saxony-Anhalt could change that.
CSU General Secretary Markus Blume called the black-red-yellow alliance, FDP chief, "a new and interesting option." Christian Lindner explained about the developments in Magdeburg to the »Münchner Merkur«: »Germany speaks against the new coalition model from the point of view of the FDP basically nothing. "
Behind this should also be the message that the formation of a government would also be possible without strong Greens. Nevertheless, that remains theory for the time being. Because in the SPD, a German coalition would encounter fierce resistance.
At the base of the comrades there was and still is frustration with the grand coalition. Should the SPD chairmen elected out of GroKo fatigue Saskia Esken and Nobert Walter-Borjans want to lead the party into a de facto continuation of the black-and-red alliance extended to include the FDP, that would be difficult to convey to their own party - especially not when it comes to green or red traffic lights there would be an alternative.